TLDR: +90% probability of snowy and slightly colder pattern across Northern Rockies for much of the latter half of February.
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Considering the recent bluebird days across the Northern Rockies, we consulted the suite of long-range models and their ensembles to see what pattern change(s) are depicted in the latter half of February.
As seen in the attached image, there is a greater than 90 percent probability in a pattern that is snowy and (at least) slightly colder than seasonal averages across the Northern Rockies beginning around February 20 and continuing through remainder of February.
The 2 most important pieces of this pattern change assessment that support a snowy regime across the Northern Rockies:
Northwest Flow
Trough Pattern
The intensity and timing of any arctic airmass depicted by the models and their ensembles remains uncertain, with 20+ degree spread in the most plausible (25th-75th percentile) daily high/low temperatures. Nevertheless, there is roughly an 80 percent chance of daily high/low temperatures below the seasonal average during much of the final week of February.
Original source can be found here.
